Market uncertainty is increasingly being cited as the major reason for
the erosion of the rupee, the decline in foreign direct investment
during the past four months, the decline in investor confidence and the
plunge in the country's stock markets. And this uncertainty is the
outcome of the sustained failure of the PTI administration to present a
set of economic policies required to provide a comfort level to economic
players in the country.
To date, the government has not eased
concerns about whether it would seek an International Monetary Fund
(IMF) programme with all its associated policies in the form of
pre-programme as well as during the programme conditions; or whether it
has definitively decided to go it alone which implies a set of policies
targeted to dealing with the existing economic impasse that would almost
certainly require the implementation of several politically challenging
policy decisions that may not markedly differ from what the IMF would
have recommended but without the bailout package that may have allowed
the government to negotiate a slowdown in the reform process.
As
matters stand today, the policies announced by the PTI government are
disturbingly similar to what were in effect during the previous
administration. The supplementary budget of the incumbent government
sought to decrease development expenditure and raise current expenditure
with obvious negative implications on growth. The budget did not take
advantage of the fact that the civilian and military leadership are on
the same page for the first time since 2008 or of the need to negotiate a
freeze on the income of the civil service for the duration of the
current crisis. Additionally, revenue is to be generated from existing
taxes, from those who are filers rather than from the non-filers and
sadly, there have been no major developments in reforming the tax
structure to make it fair and non-anomalous though the public has been
informed that an exercise to that effect is ongoing.
The export
package has been carried over from the Abbasi-led government as have the
subsidies on tube-wells and fertilizers. Sugar exports would be
provided a subsidy given that costs of production in the domestic market
are higher than in the international market - a decision that may lead
to continued rising area under sugarcane cultivation as opposed to
cotton which, in turn, accounts for high imports of raw cotton to meet
domestic demand. And unfortunately, claiming foreign direct investment
is flowing into the economy in the aftermath of a change in government
without taking into account agreements and request for incentives by
existing investors that predate the installation of the Khan
administration.
The question of whether the State Bank of
Pakistan is to be allowed autonomy to meet its stated terms of reference
notably to reduce inflation through an independent monetary policy and
allow the currency rate to be set by market conditions was recently
publicly compromised (though SBP has never enjoyed meaningful autonomy
in the past irrespective of claims to the contrary by previous
administrations). Additionally, government after government has used SBP
not as the lender of the last resort but of the first resort (a policy
that an autonomous SBP would not have supported) with the Khan
administration already borrowing nearly 2.8 trillion rupees this year
(as opposed to 1.8 trillion rupees in the comparable period last year).
There needs to be some legislation on how much the government should be
allowed to borrow from SBP.
Imran Khan has assured the public he
would not take decisions that would hurt the poor, insists he would
raise employment opportunities and provide housing to the poor, and take
measures that would be pro-poor and pro-economic growth. These are
salutary objectives; however, he must understand that taxing the already
taxed is not the way forward. He must ponder whether or not all those
who receive government largesse - be they the civil servants or be they
industrialists to be able to compete abroad, or be they rich farmers who
the constitution allows not to be taxed by the federal government -
paying taxes justly and righteously.
To conclude, Imran Khan is
relying on his considerable popularity to defer decisions that are
fuelling uncertainty. He would do well to look at what is happening in
France to the considerable popularity of President Emanuel Macron after
he raised fuel taxes even though over 57 percent of all French
government revenue is directed into public service. Public patience even
that of one's supporters is likely to dissolve once their disposable
incomes shrink.
Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Car sales fall on back of price hikes
Locally produced vehicle sales, especially cars of small engines, fell in November 2018 as multiple price hikes and restriction on non-filers of tax returns discouraged many buyers.
Sales of the low-end vehicle segment, 1,000cc and below, dropped heavily on the back of a deteriorating macroeconomic situation in the country and challenges faced by the auto sector.Sales of 800 to 1,000cc cars declined 25% year-on-year and 37% month-on-month in November, according to monthly data of the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) released on Tuesday.
he major low-end segment has been affected more by the recent situation, however, high and mid-tier segments are also going to go through the same situation,” said research analyst Faizul Sultan at BMA Capital Management Limited.
Overall, automobile sales dipped 17% year-on-year to 17,442 units in November 2018 whereas sales dropped 30% to 17,442 units on a month-on-month basis against 24,850 units in October.
The fall was in line with market expectations due to a worsening economy, the law barring non-filers of tax returns from vehicle purchase and multiple price increases because of rupee depreciation against the dollar, according to a report of Topline Securities.
The interest rate hikes have also hit vehicle sales in the country. The benchmark interest rate has been raised by 425 basis points since January 2018 to 10%, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
Sales of Pak Suzuki Motor Company, which caters to almost 50% of the market and meets mostly the demand from low-end customers, plunged 25% to 8,511 units in November against 11,285 units in the corresponding period of last year. Among different models of the company, sales of Swift fell 7%, Mehran 44%, Bolan 39% and Ravi 28% while Cultus sales grew 13%.
Pak Suzuki’s sales declined 37% to 8,511 units in November on a month-on-month basis from 13,346 units last month.
Indus Motor recorded a yearly decline of 7% in sales, which reached 5,479 units in November. On a month-on-month basis, its sales fell 15% to 5,479 units from 6,409 units in October
Toyota Corolla sales grew 9% year-on-year while sales of Hilux and Fortuner decreased 46% and 15%, respectively.
Honda’s sales nosedived 23% to 3,452 in November against 4,456 units in the same period of last year. On monthly basis, Honda sales witnessed a steep fall of 31% to 3,452 units from 5,005 units in October.
During first five months of the current fiscal year, auto sales were recorded at 100,643 units, down 4% against 104,901 units in the same period of last year, which was the first decline in five years.
Pak Suzuki sales declined 11% to 51,425 units against 57,776 units in the same period of last year.
Indus Motor sales rose 7% to 27,307 units compared to 25,558 units in the same period of previous year.
Honda witnessed a meagre 2% increase in car sales, reaching 21,911 units against 21,567 units in the corresponding period of last year. Honda BR-V sales plunged 76% and City and Civic sales on a cumulative basis decreased only 2% year-on-year.
Sugar Industry in Pakistan
Elementary economics dictates that when input prices increase without
a commensurate increase in output price, supply should fall. Not so in
Pakistan’s sugar industry. During the last marketing year, sugar milling
sector increased production by 38 percent, even as retail price of
sugar remained unchanged.
Was it the export potential of domestic sugar that led to the ramped-up production? Not unless foreign buyers love procuring the sweetener selling at roughly 30 percent premium to prices in international market. Like its physical form, domestic demand of white sugar is sticky too; which is probably a good thing considering no causal relationship has been discovered in increase in consumption of sweetener and economic growth of nations.
Sugar millers privately hint that actual domestic demand may be underreported by as high as 20 percent. And millers are forced to report lower output and show losses because the minimum support price is detrimental to their business. Granted, but the high levels of year-end inventory reported by almost all listed players cannot just disappear from the go-downs.
But look closely, and one may notice nice segmentation of market among players, big and small. While the available data is limited to major listed players, listed players constitute on average 40 to 50 percent of total sugary output in Pakistan. Year on year increase in output by these players increased on average by 46 percent over the last two reported marketing years; barring Habib Sugar, which recorded a two percent decline. Why would every player ramp up production only to be forced to dump its stock at depressed retail price in absence of any demand growth?
While output level naturally varies year-on-year, market share (in terms of share in production) of most listed players records little variance over the years. The biggest dog in the neighbourhood has an average share of 11 percent, which deviates less than one percentage point during the five-year period under review. The next two players have a similar story, with on average 4.5 and four percent share of the market, respectively.
But even if the industry players have neatly segmented the market amongst themselves that is of little benefit when supply exceeds demand, and domestic retail prices refuse to budge. However, one miller provides a hint: the segmentation has little to do with the domestic market as at current levels of output and price, there is little money to be made catering to the local demand.
Millers ramp up production in expectation of receiving subsidy on export quota, which is partly determined on the levels of output. Thus, while no miller wishes to increase ‘reported’ production so much that it is penalized for inordinate increase in absence of forecasted demand growth; every player has an incentive to at least maintain its market share at previous year’s level, such that its export quota does not decline.
Was it the export potential of domestic sugar that led to the ramped-up production? Not unless foreign buyers love procuring the sweetener selling at roughly 30 percent premium to prices in international market. Like its physical form, domestic demand of white sugar is sticky too; which is probably a good thing considering no causal relationship has been discovered in increase in consumption of sweetener and economic growth of nations.
Sugar millers privately hint that actual domestic demand may be underreported by as high as 20 percent. And millers are forced to report lower output and show losses because the minimum support price is detrimental to their business. Granted, but the high levels of year-end inventory reported by almost all listed players cannot just disappear from the go-downs.
But look closely, and one may notice nice segmentation of market among players, big and small. While the available data is limited to major listed players, listed players constitute on average 40 to 50 percent of total sugary output in Pakistan. Year on year increase in output by these players increased on average by 46 percent over the last two reported marketing years; barring Habib Sugar, which recorded a two percent decline. Why would every player ramp up production only to be forced to dump its stock at depressed retail price in absence of any demand growth?
While output level naturally varies year-on-year, market share (in terms of share in production) of most listed players records little variance over the years. The biggest dog in the neighbourhood has an average share of 11 percent, which deviates less than one percentage point during the five-year period under review. The next two players have a similar story, with on average 4.5 and four percent share of the market, respectively.
But even if the industry players have neatly segmented the market amongst themselves that is of little benefit when supply exceeds demand, and domestic retail prices refuse to budge. However, one miller provides a hint: the segmentation has little to do with the domestic market as at current levels of output and price, there is little money to be made catering to the local demand.
Millers ramp up production in expectation of receiving subsidy on export quota, which is partly determined on the levels of output. Thus, while no miller wishes to increase ‘reported’ production so much that it is penalized for inordinate increase in absence of forecasted demand growth; every player has an incentive to at least maintain its market share at previous year’s level, such that its export quota does not decline.
E-commerce growth: Sale value reaches Rs100b
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has witnessed reasonable growth in e-commerce activities over the past few years as sale value of industry is on rise and reached Rs100 billion mark.
According to State Bank of Pakistan, the sales of local and international e-commerce merchants were Rs20.7 billion in 2017 and Rs 40.1 billion in 2018 with an encouraging growth of 93.7 percent.
Fishry.com, an e-commerce platform that provides services to trading companies, organised a one-day conference EcomX Pakistan in association with Microsoft and Pakistan Software Houses Association.
A large number of experts belonging to the IT sector, business start-ups, logistics companies and small and medium enterprises participated in the event. They discussed comprehensive digital solutions to the challenges faced by the rapidly growing e-commerce industry.
The conference was aimed at strengthening e-commerce in Pakistan by highlighting its core components ie connectivity, technology, inventory, supply chain, logistics and online payments.
Apart from Pakistan’s IT firms, regional and global IT experts from Facebook, Google and Microsoft also participated in the conference.
Speaking on the occasion, the experts called for framing policies to provide a sound basis for e-commerce in Pakistan and suggested the creation of a necessary regulatory environment. Debates, chaired by a panel of experts, on various technical products were also held.
While highlighting the deterioration in Pakistan’s exports, the experts emphasised that businesses should shift their focus from the business-to-business approach to business-to-customer connectivity.
"For countries like Pakistan, which face difficulty in connecting to international businesses, it is important to invest in e-commerce and digital solutions so that through digital correspondence catering to the international market becomes easier,” an expert said.
Keeping in view the growing number of internet users in the region, experts have estimated the turnout of e-commerce business to reach up to $1 billion which is at present limited to $300 million.
The exports of services from Pakistan
The exports of services from the country surged by 14.28 percent to
$470 million in October against the exports during same month of
previous year.
The trade deficit of services also fell sharply by 49.05 percent during the month as it decreased to $195 million against the trade deficit of $382 million in same month of previous year, according to latest data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The imports of services declined by 16.25 percent to $665 million in the corresponding month as compared to import of $794.02 million in October 2017.
Meanwhile the trade deficit of services during first four months of current fiscal year (2018-19) also shrank by 33.75 percent as exports increased by 2.13 percent and imports fell by 15.47 percent during the period under as compared to the period from July-October (2017-18).
The data shows that the service trade deficit contracted to $1.099 billion during July-October 2018-19 from $1.658 billion in same period of last year.
The services exports also increased to $1.76 billion from $1.723 billion in first four months of previous year whereas the imports during the period under review were recorded at $2.859 billion against imports of $3.38 billion in the corresponding period of last year. It is pertinent to mention here that merchandize exports during first five months of current fiscal year increased by 1.29 percent as compared to the exports of corresponding period of last year.
The exports from the country during the period under review reached to US$ 9.12 billion against exports worth of $9.004 billion during same period of previous year, according to latest data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday.
The trade deficit during July-November (2-018-19) shrank by 2.03 percent to $14.513 billion against $14.814 billion recorded during first five months of last fiscal year.
The trade deficit of services also fell sharply by 49.05 percent during the month as it decreased to $195 million against the trade deficit of $382 million in same month of previous year, according to latest data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The imports of services declined by 16.25 percent to $665 million in the corresponding month as compared to import of $794.02 million in October 2017.
Meanwhile the trade deficit of services during first four months of current fiscal year (2018-19) also shrank by 33.75 percent as exports increased by 2.13 percent and imports fell by 15.47 percent during the period under as compared to the period from July-October (2017-18).
The data shows that the service trade deficit contracted to $1.099 billion during July-October 2018-19 from $1.658 billion in same period of last year.
The services exports also increased to $1.76 billion from $1.723 billion in first four months of previous year whereas the imports during the period under review were recorded at $2.859 billion against imports of $3.38 billion in the corresponding period of last year. It is pertinent to mention here that merchandize exports during first five months of current fiscal year increased by 1.29 percent as compared to the exports of corresponding period of last year.
The exports from the country during the period under review reached to US$ 9.12 billion against exports worth of $9.004 billion during same period of previous year, according to latest data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday.
The trade deficit during July-November (2-018-19) shrank by 2.03 percent to $14.513 billion against $14.814 billion recorded during first five months of last fiscal year.
Pakistan-Iran trade
Trade with Iran is at record low levels. Import data from SBP
indicates Pakistan imported just $59,000 worth of goods from January to
October this year. This is why Iranian news of exports to Pakistan of
$860 million come as a shock.
Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) reports that the value of its exports to Pakistan in the first eight months of the current Iranian calendar (March – November) rose 58 percent YoY from $539 million last year.
The report was based on comments by Iran’s Commercial Attache to Pakistan, Mahmoud Haji Yousefipour.
A certain amount of discrepancies in trade data reporting is normal because of difference in valuation. Generally, exports are reported on a free on board (FOB) basis and imports on the basis of cost, insurance and freight (CIF). Time of recording, processing errors and accuracy and quality of data provided by reporting countries also result in inconsistencies. UN COMTRADE estimates that FOB and CIF alone account for 10 to 20 percent of discrepancy.
Pakistan has a history of trade discrepancies with PBC estimating Pakistan China trade figures inconsistency to be at around $3.5 billion due to under invoicing. A 2016 study by Lahore Journal of Economics estimated more than $92.7 billion in losses from 1972 to 2013 for 52 major traded commodities for trade with 21 partners due to mis-invoicing.
But this is different. The ITC figures have been taken for comparison since Iran’s TPO links up with TradeMaps. Based on SBP and ITC comparison, Pakistan has been reporting nearly non-existent imports whereas Iran’s figures place it at around $1 billion since 2010 when trade with Iran peaked and tapered off due to sanctions.
While it is often contended that oil is smuggled over the border, by its very nature smuggling is hard to quantify because of the lack of its paper trail. Differences in official trade figures cannot be accounted for by it.
Lack of formal banking channels is often cited as one of the biggest handicaps regarding trade with Iran. But if trade is being prevented through lack of financials pathways, then how is Iran reporting nearly a billion dollar of exports to Pakistan?
Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) reports that the value of its exports to Pakistan in the first eight months of the current Iranian calendar (March – November) rose 58 percent YoY from $539 million last year.
The report was based on comments by Iran’s Commercial Attache to Pakistan, Mahmoud Haji Yousefipour.
A certain amount of discrepancies in trade data reporting is normal because of difference in valuation. Generally, exports are reported on a free on board (FOB) basis and imports on the basis of cost, insurance and freight (CIF). Time of recording, processing errors and accuracy and quality of data provided by reporting countries also result in inconsistencies. UN COMTRADE estimates that FOB and CIF alone account for 10 to 20 percent of discrepancy.
Pakistan has a history of trade discrepancies with PBC estimating Pakistan China trade figures inconsistency to be at around $3.5 billion due to under invoicing. A 2016 study by Lahore Journal of Economics estimated more than $92.7 billion in losses from 1972 to 2013 for 52 major traded commodities for trade with 21 partners due to mis-invoicing.
But this is different. The ITC figures have been taken for comparison since Iran’s TPO links up with TradeMaps. Based on SBP and ITC comparison, Pakistan has been reporting nearly non-existent imports whereas Iran’s figures place it at around $1 billion since 2010 when trade with Iran peaked and tapered off due to sanctions.
While it is often contended that oil is smuggled over the border, by its very nature smuggling is hard to quantify because of the lack of its paper trail. Differences in official trade figures cannot be accounted for by it.
Lack of formal banking channels is often cited as one of the biggest handicaps regarding trade with Iran. But if trade is being prevented through lack of financials pathways, then how is Iran reporting nearly a billion dollar of exports to Pakistan?
Monday, August 27, 2018
Turkey crisis weighs on Asian shares
Stocks were weaker in most major Asian markets Wednesday, with
Turkey’s financial crisis showing little sign of abating as Ankara hiked
tariffs on several US goods in a tit-for-tat move.
Following a day of gains on Tuesday, investors were again in a bearish mood, driving down markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai, but the Turkish lira was spared the free fall of recent sessions.
The main Japanese market, the Nikkei 225, erased early gains to close 0.68 percent down on the day, giving back some of the ground made on Tuesday when it jumped by more than two percent.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was off more than 1.5 percent and the losses were even deeper in Shanghai, which was in the red by more than two percent as disappointing economic data continued to weigh on the market.
The Turkish lira avoided the kind of dizzying drops seen in recent days but still experienced some frantic trading when Ankara announced a rise in tariffs for certain US imports.
Turkey’s vice president said the hikes were ordered “within the framework of reciprocity in retaliation for the conscious attacks on our economy by the US administration”, as the war of words between the two NATO allies intensified.
Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank, said the Turkey crisis was likely to go on for some time.
“It is hard not to see the lira remaining under pressure until we see a material fiscal restraint to cool down the economy, along with a measurable lift in rates by the central bank and a diplomatic resolution to US tensions,” said the analyst.
The Turkish unit had been under pressure for weeks over growing concerns about the health of the economy but the currency slumped on Friday and Monday, when US President Donald Trump announced Washington was ramping up aluminium and steel tariffs.
In late Asian trading, the lira was at 6.2050 against the dollar, having recovered significantly from the record lows of 7.24 seen on Monday.
Traders fretted that Turkey’s woes could spark contagion into other emerging currencies and also that banks in advanced nations could suffer due to exposure to the Turkish economy.
“While the lira is stabilising, investors are still concerned that the crisis will spread to other emerging economies and currencies,” said Hikaru Sato, senior technical analyst at Daiwa Securities.
“Trading is expected to remain nervous for now.”
However, not all was doom and gloom in Asian markets, with Seoul’s Kospi and the main Australian market up around 0.5 percent.
Following a day of gains on Tuesday, investors were again in a bearish mood, driving down markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai, but the Turkish lira was spared the free fall of recent sessions.
The main Japanese market, the Nikkei 225, erased early gains to close 0.68 percent down on the day, giving back some of the ground made on Tuesday when it jumped by more than two percent.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was off more than 1.5 percent and the losses were even deeper in Shanghai, which was in the red by more than two percent as disappointing economic data continued to weigh on the market.
The Turkish lira avoided the kind of dizzying drops seen in recent days but still experienced some frantic trading when Ankara announced a rise in tariffs for certain US imports.
Turkey’s vice president said the hikes were ordered “within the framework of reciprocity in retaliation for the conscious attacks on our economy by the US administration”, as the war of words between the two NATO allies intensified.
Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank, said the Turkey crisis was likely to go on for some time.
“It is hard not to see the lira remaining under pressure until we see a material fiscal restraint to cool down the economy, along with a measurable lift in rates by the central bank and a diplomatic resolution to US tensions,” said the analyst.
The Turkish unit had been under pressure for weeks over growing concerns about the health of the economy but the currency slumped on Friday and Monday, when US President Donald Trump announced Washington was ramping up aluminium and steel tariffs.
In late Asian trading, the lira was at 6.2050 against the dollar, having recovered significantly from the record lows of 7.24 seen on Monday.
Traders fretted that Turkey’s woes could spark contagion into other emerging currencies and also that banks in advanced nations could suffer due to exposure to the Turkish economy.
“While the lira is stabilising, investors are still concerned that the crisis will spread to other emerging economies and currencies,” said Hikaru Sato, senior technical analyst at Daiwa Securities.
“Trading is expected to remain nervous for now.”
However, not all was doom and gloom in Asian markets, with Seoul’s Kospi and the main Australian market up around 0.5 percent.
India’s falling rupee a ‘double-edged sword’ for economy
India’s rupee hit fresh record lows Thursday amid warnings that
benefits to exporters from a weaker currency would be offset by the
higher price paid by Asia’s third-largest economy for oil.
The rupee slid to 70.38 to the dollar just two days after crossing 70 for the first time as India got dragged into the turbulence of the Turkish financial crisis.
The rupee has been steadily falling throughout 2018 after starting the year at 63.67.
The weaker rupee will help India sell goods and its huge services sector in overseas markets, but the country is a massive importer of oil, securing more than two-thirds of its needs from abroad.
Any boost to exports will be offset by pressures on inflation and the current account deficit, said the Association of Mutual Funds in India.
“It is a double-edged sword for the Indian economy,” chief executive N.S. Venkatesh told AFP.
Any optimism that the falling rupee would assist exporters should be tempered with caution, said the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO).
South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil and Russia have all seen their currencies slip over the past week because, like Turkey, they remain heavily dependent on dollar-dominated foreign capital.
India’s IT, services and leather exporters may benefit from a weaker rupee — but so do its competitors from their falling currencies.
“We will lose our competitive edge to these economies and profitability from exports will also come down,” FIEO’s Ajay Sahai told AFP.
Analysts say high crude prices are squeezing the Indian currency, making it less appealing to investors.
Brent Crude was at $70.90 per barrel on Thursday, well above prices of around $50 at the same time last year.
The fall in the rupee is leading to a widening of India’s current account deficit, when the value of imports exceeds the value of exports, analysts say.
India’s central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, in part to help increase the value of the rupee.
But the currency can expect more fluctuations until the price of oil and economic conditions in emerging markets stabilise, Mumbai-based independent economist Ashutosh Datar told AFP.
The rupee slid to 70.38 to the dollar just two days after crossing 70 for the first time as India got dragged into the turbulence of the Turkish financial crisis.
The rupee has been steadily falling throughout 2018 after starting the year at 63.67.
The weaker rupee will help India sell goods and its huge services sector in overseas markets, but the country is a massive importer of oil, securing more than two-thirds of its needs from abroad.
Any boost to exports will be offset by pressures on inflation and the current account deficit, said the Association of Mutual Funds in India.
“It is a double-edged sword for the Indian economy,” chief executive N.S. Venkatesh told AFP.
Any optimism that the falling rupee would assist exporters should be tempered with caution, said the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO).
South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil and Russia have all seen their currencies slip over the past week because, like Turkey, they remain heavily dependent on dollar-dominated foreign capital.
India’s IT, services and leather exporters may benefit from a weaker rupee — but so do its competitors from their falling currencies.
“We will lose our competitive edge to these economies and profitability from exports will also come down,” FIEO’s Ajay Sahai told AFP.
Analysts say high crude prices are squeezing the Indian currency, making it less appealing to investors.
Brent Crude was at $70.90 per barrel on Thursday, well above prices of around $50 at the same time last year.
The fall in the rupee is leading to a widening of India’s current account deficit, when the value of imports exceeds the value of exports, analysts say.
India’s central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, in part to help increase the value of the rupee.
But the currency can expect more fluctuations until the price of oil and economic conditions in emerging markets stabilise, Mumbai-based independent economist Ashutosh Datar told AFP.
Trade minister unveils plan to make UK export ‘superpower’
Britain will bid to become an “exporting superpower” after Brexit, Trade Secretary Liam Fox said as he unveiled the government’s future export strategy.
The country, which is set to leave the European Union in March next year, will aim to increase exports as a proportion of GDP by five percentage points over the long-term, he announced.Britain sold a record £620 billion ($795 billion, 690 billion euros) of goods and services overseas in 2017, accounting for 30 percent of GDP, boosted by the recent weakness in the value of the pound.
The government and business groups believe it can raise this proportion to 35 percent.
“UK businesses are superbly placed to capitalise on the rapid changes in the global economic environment and I believe the UK has the potential to be a 21st century exporting superpower,” Fox told a business audience in London.
“As we leave the EU, we must set our sights high and that is just what this export strategy will help us achieve.”
The plan comes amid growing anxiety about the impact of Britain leaving the bloc without the prospect of a future trade deal.
This could hamper exports to the EU, Britain’s largest market, if tariff-free trade ends post-Brexit.
Opposition Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable, a former business minister, called Tuesday’s target unveiling “meaningless” in the current climate.
“The government’s own economic analysis shows that non-EU trade deals would not come close to making up for the loss of EU trade,” he said.
“Relying on a mirage of trade deals with parties outside the EU is at best a gamble, at worst fantastical.”
The government estimates that 400,000 British businesses could export but currently do not, while the CBI believes 10 percent of companies in every region of the country fit that category.
The plan will encourage firms to export with an awareness campaign highlighting up to £50 billion worth of export finance and insurance support on offer.
It will also aim to connect them to “overseas buyers, markets and each other” with more online information and international promotion of British companies.
“This strategy is a first step — a foundation — for a new national drive to export,” said Rona Fairhead, a junior trade minister.
CBI Director-General Carolyn Fairbairn welcomed the plan.
“The CBI has consistently called for a long-term approach to exports,” she said.
“Previous strategies have come and gone, but businesses have been let down by their execution.”
Britain’s export market jumped 11 percent last year, helping to narrow its trade deficit.
But exports fell and imports rose in the three months to June, widening the deficit by £4.7 billion, amid the Brexit uncertainty and global tensions over trade.
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| Branch Name: | Lakhani Centre Branch |
| Swift Code: | AIINPKKA0XXX |
| IBAN: | PK 12AIIN 000 0102119665018 |
Edhi International Foundation U.K.
| Account Title: | Edhi International Foundation U.K. |
| Account No: | 01466755 |
| Bank Name: | Lloyds TSB Bank London – U.K |
| Sort Code: | 30-99-86 |
| BIC: | LOYDGB-21043 |
| IBAN: | GB55 LOYD 3099 86 0146 6755 |
Edhi International Foundation U.K.
| Account Title: | Edhi International Foundation U.K. |
| Account No: | 70013779 |
| Bank Name: | Habib Bank Ltd. – UK 65 Whitechapel Road, London E1 1DU |
| Sort Code: | 60-95-11 |
| BIC: | HABBGB2L |
| IBAN: | GB63 HABB 6095 11 7001 3779 |
FOR USA ----- $ Account:
Abdul Sattar Edhi International Foundation
EIN Number: 11-3013369
| Account Title: | Abdul Sattar Edhi International Foundation |
| Name of Bank: | JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA |
| Account No: | 681596222 |
| Bank Add: | 3794, 103rd Street, Corona, NY 11368, USA |
| Routing #: | 021000021 |
| Swift Code: | CHASUS33 |
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation (Pak Rupees)
| Account Title: | Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation |
| Account No: | 0108-208086754 (Pak Rupees) |
| Bank Name: | UBL |
| Branch Name: | Bombay Bazar Branch – Karachi |
| Swift Code: | UNILPKKAXXX |
| IBAN: | PK37 UNIL 0109 0002 0808 6754 |
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation (US$)
| Account Title: | Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation |
| Account No: | 0108 201840285 (US$) |
| Bank Name: | UBL |
| Branch Name: | Bombay Bazar Branch – Karachi |
| Swift Code: | UNILPKKAXXX |
| IBAN: | PK25UNIL0000000201840285 |
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation (Sterling Pound)
| Account Title: | Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation |
| Account No: | 0108-312-0014-0 (Sterling Pound) |
| Bank Name: | UBL |
| Branch Name: | Bombay Bazar Branch – Karachi |
| Swift Code: | UNILPKKAXXX |
| IBAN: | PK55UNIL0000010831200140 |
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation (Euro)
| Account Title: | Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation |
| Account No: | 0108-318-0002-1 (Euro) |
| Bank Name: | UBL |
| Branch Name: | Bombay Bazar Branch – Karachi |
| Swift Code: | UNILPKKAXXX |
| IBAN: | PK37UNIL0000010831800021 |
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation (AED Dirham)
| Account Title: | Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation |
| Account No: | 0108-392-0001-4 (AED Dirham) |
| Bank Name: | UBL |
| Branch Name: | Bombay Bazar Branch – Karachi |
| Swift Code: | UNILPKKAXXX |
| IBAN: | PK50UNIL0000010839200014 |
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation (Saudi Riyal)
| Account Title: | Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation |
| Account No: | 0108-928-0001-7 (Saudi Riyal) |
| Bank Name: | UBL |
| Branch Name: | Bombay Bazar Branch – Karachi |
| Swift Code: | UNILPKKAXXX |
| IBAN: | PK05UNIL0000010892800017 |
Account Title:
|
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation
|
||||||||||||||
Account No:
|
0010016462880030
|
||||||||||||||
Bank Name:
|
Allied Bank Ltd
|
||||||||||||||
Branch Name:
|
Merewether Tower Branch – Karachi
|
||||||||||||||
Swift Code:
|
ABPAPKKAXXX
|
||||||||||||||
IBAN:PK50ABPA0010016462880030
OR
Abdul Sattar Edhi Foundation (Pak Rupees)
|
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Pakistan envoy stresses need of promoting bilateral trade with US
Pakistan Ambassador to United States Ali Jehangir Siddiqui has
emphasized the need of promoting bilateral trade between Pakistan and
the United States.
He expressed these views while presiding over a day-long conference
of Pakistan’s Consuls General and Commercial Counsellors in the United
States at Washington.
Matters related to consular facilitation, bilateral trade and
investment, and outreach to Pakistani-American community for promoting
Pakistan-U.S. relations were discussed.
The Ambassador was briefed on recent improvements brought in consular
services. Applauding the steps taken by the Embassy and the Consulates
General, the Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui asked the concerned
officers to further improve areas of consular services based on the
feedback received from the community.
He directed the trade representatives to focus on untapped sectors on
both sides for enhancing commercial ties between the two countries.
Basmati Rice Exports
The 13 percent YoY increase in exports for 10MFY18 was led in part by
food exports, of which rice accounted for 40 percent. Nearly 80 percent
of Pakistan’s rice exports are of non-Basmati rice. On average Basmati
rice is over a $1,000 per ton as compared to less $500 per ton for
non-Basmati rice, as per PBS data. That is a differential of nearly 150
percent which is why the premium-priced Basmati gets the spotlight a lot
more than its brethren.
Basmati rice, similar to non-Basmati rice, has different varieties.
As per REAP export data, there were mainly 6 different varieties of
non-Basmati rice exported in FY15 and 4 different varieties of Basmati
rice. The least expensive variety of Basmati – Basmati brown rice – was
nearly 40 percent more expensive that the most expensive non-Basmati
variety i.e. blended rice.
Globally the Basmati market (including raw, parboiled, and steamed) stood at $10.5 billion in 2017 and is growing at a CAGR of over 10 percent to reach $17.8 billion by 2023. EU, one of Pakistan’s main markets for Basmati rice, is growing at a CAGR of 3.2 percent and is expected to reach $615 million by 2023.
The non-Basmati rice has many exporting countries with players from ASEAN taking the lead. Basmati rice on the other hand is famed from originating from the sub-continent making India Pakistan’s main competitor. Here, Pakistan has an advantage as EU has banned Indian rice for having high level content of a fungicide called Tricyclazole.
While this restriction is in place for EU alone at the moment, Jordan earlier, this year, denied permission for off loading containers carrying Indian Basmati for similar reasons.
Thus it is possible that it is a challenge that India will continue to face, especially if other countries jump on this band wagon. Since it will take a minimum of three harvests to bring down Tricyclazole content to permissible level, Pakistan has time to elbow in and increase market share.
It has been said innumerable times that Pakistan’s exports are non-diversified and dependent on resource goods. This is a state of affairs that is not possible to address in the short and medium term. If Pakistan has to depend on agri goods in the foreseeable future, why not ensure that they are at least premium priced such as Basmati rice?
Basmati rice, similar to non-Basmati rice, has different varieties.
As per REAP export data, there were mainly 6 different varieties of
non-Basmati rice exported in FY15 and 4 different varieties of Basmati
rice. The least expensive variety of Basmati – Basmati brown rice – was
nearly 40 percent more expensive that the most expensive non-Basmati
variety i.e. blended rice.Globally the Basmati market (including raw, parboiled, and steamed) stood at $10.5 billion in 2017 and is growing at a CAGR of over 10 percent to reach $17.8 billion by 2023. EU, one of Pakistan’s main markets for Basmati rice, is growing at a CAGR of 3.2 percent and is expected to reach $615 million by 2023.
The non-Basmati rice has many exporting countries with players from ASEAN taking the lead. Basmati rice on the other hand is famed from originating from the sub-continent making India Pakistan’s main competitor. Here, Pakistan has an advantage as EU has banned Indian rice for having high level content of a fungicide called Tricyclazole.
While this restriction is in place for EU alone at the moment, Jordan earlier, this year, denied permission for off loading containers carrying Indian Basmati for similar reasons.
Thus it is possible that it is a challenge that India will continue to face, especially if other countries jump on this band wagon. Since it will take a minimum of three harvests to bring down Tricyclazole content to permissible level, Pakistan has time to elbow in and increase market share.
It has been said innumerable times that Pakistan’s exports are non-diversified and dependent on resource goods. This is a state of affairs that is not possible to address in the short and medium term. If Pakistan has to depend on agri goods in the foreseeable future, why not ensure that they are at least premium priced such as Basmati rice?
olive valley
It has been recently reported that the government is trying to convert
Chakwal valley into an olive valley. For this purpose, two million olive plants
will be distributed in Punjab over the next five years while an olive oil
preparing factory is already functional in the region.
Pakistan’s water starved economy is dependent on water intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice . Olive trees are hardy plants with roots so extensive and strong that in time of drought they can survive by drawing water from deep within the earth. They are also able to produce olives for hundreds of years enabling the return on investment for setting up olive trees to be reasonably high and sustainable.
A report by SMEDA estimates that on average, an olive plant produces 20 to 35 kg of fruit per year which contain more than 12 percent oil content. Olives can be sold at the rate of Rs.73 per kg and oil can be sold at Rs. 500 per litre. Estimates suggest that the current there are 8 million wild olive trees present in different provinces, which if drafted and converted for olive production could present a potential of earning of $1 billion annually.
Since an olive plant requires at least 5 years before it can start bearing fruit, it is not feasible for farmers to opt for olive trees on their own. To promote its cultivation, the Punjab government has given a 70 percent subsidy on watering and cultivation and a 60 percent subsidy on installation of drip irrigation systems. The agricultural department has also promised to purchase olives so that farmers can sell their produce immediately.
However, this is not the first time an attempt has been made to create an olive valley. In 2016, Punjab government tried to create an olive valley in Potahar over 15,000 acres of land with a project cost of Rs 2.8 billion. Similarly, Pakistan Economic Survey FY18 lists olive forests in Punjab as part of its Green Pakistan Program, which is an initiative to revive forestry and wildlife resources to make the country more environmentally resilient. However, there has been little evidence of progress or results.
Though the government is providing some support for olive production, it also provides more lucrative assistance to main stream crops such as rice, sugar, wheat and cotton in the form of support prices and subsidies. There is little incentive for farmers to shift to the more prudent, profitable and long term sustainable production of olives. Yet, this shift needs to be made at least in part to decrease pressure on Pakistan’s water resources, decrease the edible oil import bill and tap into the lucrative Middle Eastern market that has high olive oil demand.
Pakistan’s water starved economy is dependent on water intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice . Olive trees are hardy plants with roots so extensive and strong that in time of drought they can survive by drawing water from deep within the earth. They are also able to produce olives for hundreds of years enabling the return on investment for setting up olive trees to be reasonably high and sustainable.
A report by SMEDA estimates that on average, an olive plant produces 20 to 35 kg of fruit per year which contain more than 12 percent oil content. Olives can be sold at the rate of Rs.73 per kg and oil can be sold at Rs. 500 per litre. Estimates suggest that the current there are 8 million wild olive trees present in different provinces, which if drafted and converted for olive production could present a potential of earning of $1 billion annually.
Since an olive plant requires at least 5 years before it can start bearing fruit, it is not feasible for farmers to opt for olive trees on their own. To promote its cultivation, the Punjab government has given a 70 percent subsidy on watering and cultivation and a 60 percent subsidy on installation of drip irrigation systems. The agricultural department has also promised to purchase olives so that farmers can sell their produce immediately.
However, this is not the first time an attempt has been made to create an olive valley. In 2016, Punjab government tried to create an olive valley in Potahar over 15,000 acres of land with a project cost of Rs 2.8 billion. Similarly, Pakistan Economic Survey FY18 lists olive forests in Punjab as part of its Green Pakistan Program, which is an initiative to revive forestry and wildlife resources to make the country more environmentally resilient. However, there has been little evidence of progress or results.
Though the government is providing some support for olive production, it also provides more lucrative assistance to main stream crops such as rice, sugar, wheat and cotton in the form of support prices and subsidies. There is little incentive for farmers to shift to the more prudent, profitable and long term sustainable production of olives. Yet, this shift needs to be made at least in part to decrease pressure on Pakistan’s water resources, decrease the edible oil import bill and tap into the lucrative Middle Eastern market that has high olive oil demand.
Thursday, May 10, 2018
6 Best Foods in Pakistan to Live Longer and Healthy Life
6 Best Foods in Pakistan to Live Longer and Healthy Life
The choice of food and drinks impact our lives. Some food nourish your body with cancer-fighting antioxidants while others contain harmful chemicals. Read on to see which are 6 Best foods to consume to live longer.• Vegetables
We all remember being told to eat our greens as children, and for good reason. Vegetables such as kale, broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower are packed with fibres, helping to improve the digestive system, reduce cholesterol and prevent cancer.
• Spices
A study of nearly half a million people found that those who eat spicy food once a week or more are 10% less likely to die than those who didn’t. Spicy foods will also give your metabolism a boost and lower your risk of cancer and heart disease.
• Blueberries
Blueberries are very high in antioxidants, which protect against cancer and aging. They are very effective in repair of damaged cells. Regular consumption can increase your lifespan by around 28%, or an average of 22 years, according to research. For their extreme contribution towards health, they have been crowned as Super Food.
• Beans
These nutritional powerhouses are full of goodness. High in fibres, B vitamins, iron and potassium they’re also packed with protein. Just half a cup of cooked black beans contains 8 grams of protein and less than 1 gram of fat, making them a healthier alternative to other proteins such as read meat.
• Fish
Fish such as salmon, mackerel and trout are high in Omega-3 fatty acids, helping to reduce heart disease and blood pressure with the added bonus of boosting brain function. Just two servings a week can add two years to life and reduce your risk of premature death by a quarter.
• Green Tea
One of the healthiest beverages and options in the world, green tea is loaded with nutrients and antioxidants. Its polyphenols have been shown to decrease tumour growth and reduce the risk of breast, bladder, ovarian, lung and prostate cancer. It is highly popular among Chinese and Japanese where people have passed 100 years of age.
What Do The Numbers At The Bottom of Plastic Containers Mean?
Filling the water bottles out is considered to be the greatest
achievement to please your parents in brown culture. We often reuse the
Cola bottles. Some of us may muster some concerns and actually go to a
grocery store to buy fridge dedicated bottles. But are these bottles
safe? Have we ever bothered to know what the different kinds of bottles
are? Which should be reused and which shouldn’t be. Beware! Asian
“jugaadz” aren’t safe every time.
There are 7 + 1 types of plastics. May be some of the curious people among us have noticed the numbers in a recycling symbol. Have you ever wondered what they mean? They signify different kinds of plastic, contents that have been used in them and how much can you reuse them.
Number one is the clear type of plastic mostly used for cola bottles and it is NOT safe to reuse it again. The plastic material used in these bottles are porous in nature and thus can accumulate a lot of germs in them. So, people DO NOT put water in them again and again. Type 2 is opaque and is used for detergent bottles and is considered to be a little safe and has less leaking properties.
Type 3 contains PVC and this type of plastic is used in making of food wraps and cooking oil bottles. They should not be heated ever. The PVC plastic can interfere with your hormonal health and can thus make you infertile or even provoke cancer. Type 4 is made up of low density polythene and is considered to be relatively safe. These are used in bread bags, food wraps, sauce squeezing bottle, etc.
Type 5 are the plastic materials which are heat resistant and said to be microwave safe. But people none of the plastic is safe when heated because we heat it too much sometimes and it can mingle with the plastic chemically. Plastic 6 is very dangerous, all of the disposable bags. It is dangerous because it is highly reactive to heat and emits dangerous chemicals. Plastic 6 if not recycled cannot be decomposed, in other words its non-biodegradable.
Okay so when you hear type 7 this is what you should do: “Run”. Its literally every kind of plastic mixed together and made into a mould. Technological aesthetics, sports and dental equipment and worse, some water and baby bottles are also made out of it.
So, another type 7+1st is the one called BPF free. Which means that it is the angel with a halo type of material that is pure and safe to use. But modern studies have suggested that it also has a life in thousands and thus can be dangerous to health.
Ergo, every kind of plastic is dangerous for us and for the mother earth. Imagine the devil gale we are awakening by clustering the mountains of non-ending things. The only solution and need of time is to say a complete no to plastic, otherwise we may regret it very soon.
There are 7 + 1 types of plastics. May be some of the curious people among us have noticed the numbers in a recycling symbol. Have you ever wondered what they mean? They signify different kinds of plastic, contents that have been used in them and how much can you reuse them.
Number one is the clear type of plastic mostly used for cola bottles and it is NOT safe to reuse it again. The plastic material used in these bottles are porous in nature and thus can accumulate a lot of germs in them. So, people DO NOT put water in them again and again. Type 2 is opaque and is used for detergent bottles and is considered to be a little safe and has less leaking properties.
Type 3 contains PVC and this type of plastic is used in making of food wraps and cooking oil bottles. They should not be heated ever. The PVC plastic can interfere with your hormonal health and can thus make you infertile or even provoke cancer. Type 4 is made up of low density polythene and is considered to be relatively safe. These are used in bread bags, food wraps, sauce squeezing bottle, etc.
Type 5 are the plastic materials which are heat resistant and said to be microwave safe. But people none of the plastic is safe when heated because we heat it too much sometimes and it can mingle with the plastic chemically. Plastic 6 is very dangerous, all of the disposable bags. It is dangerous because it is highly reactive to heat and emits dangerous chemicals. Plastic 6 if not recycled cannot be decomposed, in other words its non-biodegradable.
Okay so when you hear type 7 this is what you should do: “Run”. Its literally every kind of plastic mixed together and made into a mould. Technological aesthetics, sports and dental equipment and worse, some water and baby bottles are also made out of it.
So, another type 7+1st is the one called BPF free. Which means that it is the angel with a halo type of material that is pure and safe to use. But modern studies have suggested that it also has a life in thousands and thus can be dangerous to health.
Ergo, every kind of plastic is dangerous for us and for the mother earth. Imagine the devil gale we are awakening by clustering the mountains of non-ending things. The only solution and need of time is to say a complete no to plastic, otherwise we may regret it very soon.
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