Friday, November 07, 2014

Gas prices to be increased in Pakistan

Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has informed the
Senate Standing Committee that the import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) would save up to
$800 million per annum. Briefing the Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum and Natural
Resources here on Thursday, the minister said that the government would increase gas prices for
all the segments of economy excluding the domestic consumers especially lifeline consumers.
The committee meeting was chaired by Senator Mohammad Yousaf, Chairman Committee,
which was also attended by Secretary Petroleum, Abid Saeed, Managing Director (MD) Pakistan
State Oil (PSO) and other senior officials. The parliamentary panel snubbed the officials of
Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) for placing names of Managing Director (MD) and Deputy
Managing Director (DMD) of the country largest state-run oil marketing company - Pakistan
State Oil (PSO) - on Exit Control List (ECL) without any evidence.
Additional director FIA informed the committee that the agency had now approached the Interior
Ministry to remove the names of MD and DMD from the ECL as the investigation officer had
not found any evidence against these two top officials. He said that top nine officers of the PSO
were put on the ECL after the inquiry was initiated.
It was brought to the notice of Senate body that the name of MD PSO was placed on the ECL
without framing any charge of corruption after he took over charge as acting head of the PSO.
"We have no information about an inquiry initiated by the FIA," Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said,
adding that the FIA had harassed the top officials of the PSO without taking parent ministry into
confidence. He said that the FIA should have to inform the committee as well as the MD PSO
what crime was committed by him.
Abbasi also maintained that he had figures that gas theft had increased after the involvement of
the FIA. However, he added that the FIA officers had benefited from gas theft. "I know the FIA
who framed charges against me which were never proved even after eleven years and I was
quitted by court," Abbasi said.
Senators asked the FIA that what serious issues appeared in just six to seven weeks that the
probe was started. They expressed their resentment on un-preparedness of Additional Director
FIA and the item was withdrawn till the next meeting of the committee. The Federal Minister for
Petroleum ruled out that the Prime Minister had not rejected gas price hike and different options of passing on impact of raise were being worked out.
The minister said, "The Prime Minister wanted that the masses should not be burdened by gas
price increase. We are examining different options of passing gas prices increase on different
sectors except domestic," he added. He maintained that the ministry would take the matter of
article 158 of the constitution which gives first right of gas use to the producing province areas to
Council of Common Interest (CCI) for ''optimal use'' of gas.
"Power sector and CNG stations are operating in Sindh whereas power plants and fertilizer units
are shut down in Punjab province," he said, adding that provinces would also suffer of article
158. He said that priority order in gas allocation was not being followed as the country would
have to import 0.4 million tons urea due to closure of fertilizer units. He said that the government
would fetch US $600 to US $700 million by sale of 10 per cent shares of the OGDCL.
He further said that the government was working on two options of importing LNG-government
to government basis and through tender. He said that LNG would be a replacement fuel and
therefore, its price would be linked with oil in Pakistan. He further said that the government
would have to strike stable deal of long-term LNG contract for secured supply.
"I guarantee that the country would save US $300 million to US $800 million per annum by
using LNG in power plants," he said, adding that negotiations with Qatar and Malaysian firm
Petronas were going on for LNG supply. Secretary petroleum Abid Saeed told the committee
that ambiguity in appointment of acting MD PSO had been removed and the Prime Minister had
accorded approval. He maintained that the board of directors of PSO had been directed to
complete the process of appointing new MD by the end of December.
Member committee Abdul Nabi Bangash said that the FIA had harassed the MD PSO after
initiating inquiry soon after he took charge and his name was put on the ECL without any
evidence. Senators expressed their concerns regarding the damages due to delay in offloading
shipment from a ship tanker. MD PSO Amjad Janjua told the committee that it is a dispute
between the PSO and Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) due to flawed contract
and it will be decided in the court that who is liable to pay the damages in the case. The meeting
was also told that currently the circular debt facing the PSO has exceeded Rs 200 billion due to
non-payment by a number of companies. The committee decided to call all defaulters in the next
meeting.

100mmcfd gas in winters crucial for textile industry's survival,' Chairman APTMA

ON ENERGY DEFICIENCY AND FALLING TEXTILE EXPORTS When S M Tanveer
moved to Lahore in the late 80s to set up Din Textile Mills Limited, it was the right thing to do
with deteriorating security situation in Karachi. Today power cost differential between mills
operating in Punjab and mills operating in Karachi has crossed Rs 10 million per month per mill
due to this non-availability of gas. So unlike the eighties, moving the facilities where gas is
available makes more sense today. However, dismantling the entire mill and re-erecting it all
over again is a tough job. Also the biggest roadblock for any business in Karachi is the security
situation in the metropolis. 'Even then, many players are considering of moving to Karachi',
disclosed Tanveer.
With very little gas available for the textile firms of Punjab, Tanveer highlighted that the industry
has no other cost-effective fuel options. 'Running the captive power plants on furnace oil or
diesel is very expensive. Coal cannot be brought in because you need to set up coal projects of at
least 40-50MW, whereas the capacity units area all scattered in the industry, currently. Whether
it is Din Textile or APTMA, 70 percent of my time is spent doing costing', he lamented.
When asked how the internationally low cotton prices have affected demand and the country's
textile exports, Tanveer emphasised that APTMA for the very same reason has been focusing on
the declining volumes, which is quite significant when compared to last year. He further added
that while the textile exports have been affected by the world-wide decrease in demand, power
shortage and the rupee appreciation have had the greatest adverse impact on the sector's exports.
APTMA's Chairman presented the case of decreasing textile exports amid worsening energy
crisis. 'Our textile exports in quantitative terms, calculated at today's price, has fallen by than one
billion dollars in the last six months, which projected for another six months would surmount to
$2.3 billion dollars lost in cotton yarn and cloth exports. And. More than 40 percent of our
production capacity is impaired over the last over year due to the shortage of energy', he
explained.
ON COST OF POWER AND INTER-PROVINCIAL DISPARITY 'In last one year, the
price of electricity has gone up by 67 percent, and that too for Punjab only. Why do I say this? 86
percent of PEPCO's load goes to the DISCOs in Punjab. APTMA's chairman also pointed out
towards inter provincial disparity in energy supply; he termed the current scenario with 10-12
hours of daily electricity load-shedding and 16 hours of daily gas suspension across Punjab only
as ill fit for regional growth in trade and investment.
'This has rendered our exports (Punjab) uncompetitive in the region', he said while pointing out
that Punjab incurs higher cost due to interruptions and unavailability of gas supply, while Sindhbased
industry fares pretty well when compared to the regional peers on electricity tariffs for its
captive power plants due to continuous gas supply.
Delving further into the inter-provincial cost disparity, the APTMA Chairman narrated that while
the electricity units from gas and the grid are Rs 6.75/KWh and Rs 14.81/KWh respectively for
Sindh, Punjab and KPK, gas supply availability of only 30 percent for Punjab and 100 percent
for the others, raises the average energy cost to Rs 12.31/KWh in Punjab. This gives rise to
energy cost differential of around Rs 82 billion per year for the textile industry in Punjab. The
situation is worse for the entire Punjab based industry as can be seen from the illustration where
this differential amounts to Rs 150 billion per year.
'And now with the government planning to even take away the 30 percent of gas availability this
winter, the inter-provincial cost differential will increase abnormally', he warned. S M Tanveer
told BR Research that in a recent summary moved and rejected for not cutting gas supply in
winters, there were proposals to provide electricity to the textile sector of Punjab instead of gas.
'I have to look at my cost, whatever fuel is being used; and since we have peak hour and off-peak
hour rates for power, replacing gas with electricity will further increase the average energy cost
for Punjab', he lamented.
'The textile mills with no gas are paying 130 percent higher cost in Punjab than industries in
other provinces. This cost differential for 55 mills with 135MW captive power capacity is more
than Rs 10 billion annually if compared with Sindh & KPK', he further informed.
ON GAS LOAD MANAGEMENT The APTMA Chairman was of the view that the
government should follow a plan that is in the best interest of the country, which includes
completely phasing out CNG - a big source of drain of the scarce natural resource.
'Right now, 1400mmcfd gas is the estimated available in SNGPL's system for Punjab, out of
which 500mmcfd goes for domestic cooking on average. Though the demand of the entire textile
industry in Punjab is that of 300mmcfd, we demand at least 100mmcfd 0f the remaining
900mmcfd this year to keep the industry running. All in all, the government is left with
800mmcfd of gas in the immediate term to be distributed elsewhere.'
When asked about the possible near term solution to the issue at hand for the textile sector of
Punjab, APTMA Chairman told BR Research that though 300mmcfd gas supply is the
requirement for the textile sector, an hourly basis for gas supply instead of the number of days in
a week would help the industry to at least survive by managing its peak hour and off peak hours.
'We are demanding at least 100mmcfd gas in winter, which we are currently getting', he said. On
this note, it means that at least no new gas is added to the system; APTMA Chairman pointed out
to a depletion of 200mmcfd of gas from the system in last one year.
'After the winters, the government is planning to bring in LNG. The problem with LNG is that
since it will be imported it will be expensive. At $18, my cost of doing business would again be
uncompetitive with other provinces, and my concern is my cost. The textile sector is on top priority for electricity in various aspects. First on Supreme Court's ruling of equitable
distribution of electricity, the industry has first priority. Second, as per IMF's deal, the
government will give electricity where there are no line losses beyond a certain threshold, there
is 100 percent recovery, and the rate is highest. Under such conditions industry again enjoys
priority as it has its own feeder directly from the grid, which is the easiest to monitor. Third,
under NEPRA's law, the industry has priority over many other sectors for electricity in case there
is shortage', he informed.
On being asked whether Sindh's gas supply should be reduced, Chairman APTMA said he would
never even think of it, He was of the view that Sindh is a part of the country and undoubtedly
should be allowed to prosper and grow.
ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE CHALLENGES OF THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY
'Apart from raw material cost, which accounts for 67 to 70 percent of sales, cost of electricity
and power has increased from 9.9 percent in 2013 to 11.67 percent in 2014 for Din Textile Mills
Limited. This is the second largest cost component', he added.
When asked to share his views on the possible short term and long term solutions to the situation
at hand, APTMA Chairman reiterated that full provision of 300mmcfd gas to generate 1500 MW
captive power on sustainable basis, ensuring viability of industry and ending present inter
province disparity of energy supply hold key in solving the ongoing energy related issues in
Punjab's textile industry. He also emphasised on the availability of electricity for 58 prime
electricity using textile mills.
'It is ironic that the government can float Eurobond with eight percent interest where it will have
to return the principal plus the mark-up in five to ten year time, but it cannot approve rebate on
incremental textile exports that will bring in permanent money and investment in the country', he
lamented. He also added that all efforts would further be cemented with the announcement of
regionally compatible Textile Policy for 2014-19

Institution of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Pakistan may float shares of energy projects on bourses

Institution of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Pakistan (IEEEP) President Engineer Mohsin
M Syed has suggested that shares of energy projects be floated in the stock exchanges to collect
billions of rupees for energy projects. He was addressing the 35th Annual Convention/ AGM of
IEEEP here on Thursday. Chief Executive ICI Pakistan and founding member of IEEEP engineer
Shafiq A Siddiqi was the chief guest of the event.
Mohsin Syed said Pakistan was currently facing a minimum shortage of 10,000 megawatts. He
suggested that "we should plan to generate cost effective 50,000MW of electricity by 2030 in
order to provide electricity to 45 percent Pakistanis who are not connected to the grid."
Solar energy, he said, was an option in which every Pakistani could participate by installing 1-5
kilowatts in their homes. "This can remove 3,000 megawatts of load from distribution network
which will be given to the industry adding that this will create jobs. Similarly agriculture tube
wells from 15-20 kilowatts can be converted to solar energy and 200,000 tube wells can spare
another 3,000MW from the distribution system benefiting the former by reducing the input cost
of water."
He also suggested that projects like 6,000MW to 10,000MW could be set up at Keti Bander
where initially imported coal could be used and gradually replaced by Thar coal. He suggested
that there was a need to study the use of three-phase electricity meters for homes. "All the utility
system in North America and Japan uses single phase transformers, which are cost effective for
users and are better suited for load balancing on all phase by the utility company."
Syed hoped that the government would create the critical mass of technologists in the technical
ministries, who would ensure logical and strategic planning at the right forums. IEEEP Honorary
Secretary General Rana Abdul Jabbar Khan presented the annual report in which he highlighted
the activities of the IEEEP such as holding of symposiums, seminars, workshops, lectures and
publications of research journals "New Horizons".
He also said "the ongoing energy crisis is calling us to go for solar energy for bridging the
demand supply gap. Therefore, institution needs to disseminate latest technical knowledge about
renewable technologies like solar, wind and the biomass etc."

Unemployed manpower can be made effective through technical training

President Pak-China Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCJCCI) Shah Faisal Afridi said
that Pakistan can make its unemployed manpower effective in the current scenario by providing
technical training in industry related work ambits.
He stated this after having a meeting with Yuan lee, General Manager Shandong Shifeng Group
Co, Ltd and Tony Niu, Business Manager at International Trade Department, Shandong Shifeng
Group has said that China is witnessing economic transformation at a massive scale by following
the European model of relocating part of its manufacturing sector to economically viable places
that offer skilled labour at cheap wages.
Afridi was confident that Pakistan can attract Chinese manufacturing sector by developing a
trained workforce for industries. He termed this phenomenon as a great industrial transfer, which
has brought in plenty of opportunities also for Pakistan. President PCJCCI explicated that
Pakistan has the 9th largest labour force in the world. According to the Labour Force Survey
2013-14, the total labour force in the country is 57.24 million. Out of this 3.40 million people are
unemployed and rest are employed to places that do not suite to their area of expertise, he added.
He further pointed that export of quality manpower is the main driver in growth of remittances;
therefore the structure of existing population of Pakistan shows that the country has 60 percent
economically active population or work force which can prove to be a productive asset of the
country if properly trained through skill development programmes.
Faisal Afridi said that China is ready to assist Pakistan also in empowering its labour force in
accordance with its industrial requirements through the formation of collaborative Research
institutes and capacity building organisations that would impart vocational training Chinese work
ethics including language and communication to the Pakistani labour.
China would establish such training institutes in Pakistan that would keep themselves in touch
with the ongoing industrial trends, getting their input on the kind of workforce it requires, the
institutes would be empowered enough to have machines, tools and technology used by textile,
pharmaceuticals and surgical industries to ensure a well trained and competent labour force for
future consumption, he added.
Afridi urged the government to take immediate steps to modify and empower existing vocational
training institutes like Tevta. Currently, Tevta enrolls around 120,000 students in its technical
training institutes, while the demand in the market is over one million, said Afridi and pointed
out that the government of Pakistan needs to invest in skilled workers to bridge the imbalances
that occur due to inadequacy in human resource development.

Eight Economic uplift schemes approved by Punjab government

The Punjab government approved eight development schemes of various development sectors
with an estimated cost of Rs 6592.873 million including Management of Hill Torrents in
Irrigation Zone, DG Khan-Sori Lund, Vidore, Mithawan, Kaha & Chachar (Sori Lund Hill
Torrent) at the cost of Rs 2060.487 million to save D K Khan division from ravages of floods.
According to P&D spokesman, the approved development schemes included:
1. Widening/improvement of road from Misri More to Khewra via PD Khan length 52.78 km
District Jhelum at the cost of Rs 1209.307 million,
2. Concrete lining of Maggi-Magasson Link RD 0-58500 in Basira Sub Division, Muzaffargarh
at the cost of Rs 489.831 million,
3. Rehabilitation of Ahmadpur Lamma Disty System, Rahim Yar Khan at the cost of Rs 1148.96
million,
4. Rehabilitation of Jatoi Branch from RD:0+000 to RD:140+000 (Tail), Muzaffargarh at the
cost of Rs 496.396 million,
5. Checking Erosive Action of Chenab River on Left Bank Near Gangwal, Papin Village U/S of
Marala Barrage, Sialkot at the cost of Rs 365.424 million,
6. Raising of Shahpur Dam (Phase-I), Attock at the cost of Rs 261.174 million,
7. Management of Hill Torrents in Irrigation Zone, DG Khan-Sori Lund, Vidore, Mithawan,
Kaha & Chachar (Sori Lund Hill Torrent) at the cost of Rs 2060.487 million and
8. Strengthening Field Research Station (FRS) at Babakwal and Research Laboratories of
Irrigation Research Institute, Lahore Introducing Numerical Modeling of Hydraulic Structures at
the cost of Rs 561.294 million.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development urges countries to step up support for fragile growth

The OECD called Thursday on the world's leading countries to step up measures to support
flagging global growth, in particular urging the ECB to overcome its reluctance and undertake
quantitative easing. It made the appeal in an early update to its global economic forecasts before
G20 leaders hold a summit next week in Australia.
Noting that risks to the global economy remain high and market volatility may rise, OECD chief
Angel Gurria warned of an increasing risk of stagnation in the eurozone that would further
darken already gloomy global economic skies. "Countries must employ all monetary, fiscal and
structural reform policies at their disposal to address these risks and support growth," he said.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which provides economic
analysis and advice to its industrialised country members, lowered its forecast for global growth
this year by a tenth of a percentage point to 3.3 percent. For 2015 it cut the forecast by two tenths
of a point to 3.7 percent growth. It left in place its forecast for the 18-nation eurozone to grow by
0.8 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2015. The OECD's chief economist Catherine Mann
warned that "overall, the euro area is grinding to a standstill and poses a major risk to world
growth..." The organisation urged the European Central Bank to expand its monetary stimulus
programme given the very weak economy and the risk of deflation.

European Central Bank keeps interest rates at record lows

European Central Bank members are all prepared to take more policy action if necessary and the
bank's staff will prepare the groundwork in case, President Mario Draghi said on Thursday. The
ECB kept interest rates at a record low 0.05 percent at it monthly meeting, waiting to see how
stimulus measures laid out in recent months unfold.
Draghi said risks to the euro zone's recovery remained skewed to the downside and told a news
conference: "The Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional
unconventional instruments within its mandate. "The Governing Council has tasked ECB staff
and the relevant Eurosystem (central bank) committees with ensuring the timely preparation of
further measures to be implemented if needed," he said.
After the US Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying programme while the Bank of Japan
increased its pace money creation, markets are trying to judge how close the ECB is to launching
more aggressive steps, such as quantitative easing money-printing to buy large amounts of
government bonds. There has been mounting discomfort over Draghi's leadership style.
Reuters reported on Tuesday national central bankers in the euro area planned to challenge
Draghi over his communication style and in particular his mention of a balance sheet target for
how much money the ECB planned to pump into the economy after the Governing Council
agreed not to make any figure public in September. Draghi reaffirmed that target, saying the balance sheet would "move towards the dimensions it had at the beginning of 2012". He added
that the policymaking Governing Council had signed up to that unanimously but nodded to some
policy differences.
"When we differ in our views and our policies ... there is no drawing of a line between North and
South. There is no coalition, not at all," Draghi said. "The dinner (before Thursday's meeting)
went better than expected," Draghi said. The euro hit a 26-month low and peripheral European
bond yields fell after he affirmed the target and highlighted risks to economic growth.
To keep the euro zone from slipping into deflation, the ECB has started pumping more money
into the banking system through purchases of private debt and offers of long-term loans, aiming
to boost its balance sheet by up to 1 trillion euros. There is growing doubt whether its current
measures will be enough, but the ECB is expected to wait until it gets a clearer view of the
impact of its asset purchases and four-year loans to banks before adding further stimulus.
Sources close to the ECB have told Reuters that its plan to buy private-sector assets may fall
short of its goal and pressure is likely to build for bolder action early next year, firstly moving
into the corporate bond market.

OGDCL shares divestment: floor price set at Rs 216

The Cabinet Committee on Privatisation approved the floor price for divestment of 10% GoP
shares of OGDCL. Finance Minister, Senator Ishaq Dar who is in Dubai attending IMF talks,
chaired the meeting in Islamabad through a telecom link, says a press release issued here on
Thursday. After detailed deliberations, the Committee accorded approval to a floor price of Rs
216 per share as recommended by the Privatisation Commission.
An approval was also accorded to a 3-day book building process "with floor price to be applied
prior to opening of book on November 6, 2014". As agreed with the Financial Advisory
Commission (FAC), book building was launched on November 5; and it would conclude on
November 7, 2014 at 10.00pm (PST). It may be added that the consortium comprising M/s
Citibank, Bank of America/Merill Lynch and KASB was appointed in April this year which is
acting as Financial Advisory Consortium (FAC) for the divestment of up to 10% GoP shares in
OGDCL through international and domestic capital markets.
Ishaq Dar said that complete transparency has been ensured throughout the process leading to
divestment of the OGDCL shares. The meeting was attended by Minister for P&NR Shahid
Khaqan Abbasi, Minister for Commerce, Khurram Dastgir, Minister for Law and Justice, Pervaiz
Rashid, Minister for Planning and Development, Ahsan Iqbal, Minister for Textile Industry,
Abbas Khan Afridi, Chairman Privatisation Commission, Mohammad Zubair, Advisor Finance
Division, Rana Asad Amin and other senior officials.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB)

Public offices are a little too hesitant to play with technology. But credit must be give where it is
due. Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB) has rolled out some pioneering technology
solutions to automate governments business process and bring down some barriers in service
delivery to the citizens of Punjab.
In facilitating the citizens, PITB has Citizen Contact Centre, and Citizen Feedback Model that
provide multilingual centralised call centre platform with 12 different government helplines, and
a service that proactively solicits citizens feedback about their interaction with the government,
respectively. As per PITBs statistics, 4.4 million citizens have been contacted via automated calls
and SMSs, 45000 has been the daily interactions, and 4000 corrective actions have been taken.
On the health side, PITB has developed a smartphone application called HealthWatch for the
district health supervisory officers who are appointed to visit health facilities in their districts.
This app helps the government monitor indicators like staff absenteeism, out of stock medicines,
etc. where the data is collected in real time. Launched in February 2014, indicators recorded so
far on this application are more than 7000.
Another one of PITBs projects in the heath sector is the Disease Surveillance System (DSS) - a
centralised system developed to monitor, control and help eradicate contagious and epidemicprone
26 diseases identified by WHO. For anti-Dengue measures, a Dengue Activity Tracking
System (DATS) has also been initiated throughout Punjab.
From the security perspective, PITB carries out crime reporting under its Crime Investigation
Reporting System (CIRS) using a purpose build Android application with Urdu interface. So far
crime mapping is restricted to Lahore where the police personnel record the location, time and
nature of the crime being reported, and the data is then mapped in both spatial and temporal
dimensions to identify crime pockets as well as chart trends for corrective measures.
There are two highlighting features in most of these projects and many others initiated by PITB:
(a) most of these make use of smartphones and smartphone applications, (b) all of these projects
are being implemented for the first time in Pakistan. And while there may still be many
discrepancies in addressing governance issues through these initiatives, steps must be taken to
replicate such technology solutions at all provincial and the national levels to address some
pressing issues at hand.

Mobile wallets reach 4.2mn in Q2 CY14

KARACHI: The number of mobile wallets has reached 4.2 million by the end of the second
quarter of 2014 (April- June), registering an increase of 11 percent.
The mobile wallets are banking accounts which are being opened largely by the previously
unbanked population at their nearby shops which are working as branchless banking agents, said
State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) newsletter on branchless banking here on Thursday. It said that
overall number of branchless banking (BB) transactions grew to 71.1 million valuing Rs 326.1
billion during the quarter; 4% higher in volume and 17% higher in value in comparison to the
previous quarter. Average size of transaction stood at only Rs 4,581.
The volume and average size of BB transactions is a key indicator measuring access to finance
by the unbanked population in the country. The continuous growth of BB transactions reflects
interest and confidence of the common man in this innovative banking service.
Currently, eight BB players with country-wide presence of easy-to-access service delivery
channels are offering an array of services including bill payments, money transfers, governmentto-
persons (G2P) payments, loan repayments, and mobile top ups.
The combined agent network of BB players has increased to 168,615 agents -- registering 14%
growth over the last quarter. While recent growth in agent network is owed to agent-sharing
arrangements among the players, the number of distinct agents is estimated to be around 80,000.
According to the newsletter, G2P payments worth Rs 16.9 billion were disbursed via BB
channels to 5.3 million beneficiaries during April- June 2014 quarter, higher than Rs 15.32
billion disbursed to 4.6 million beneficiaries in the last quarter.
As a result of various initiatives taken by State Bank of Pakistan, branchless banking has been
reaching out to all geographic and economic segments of the country. SBP considers that
branchless banking would grow further and gradually become a significant part of overall retail
banking landscape in Pakistan.
The newsletter covers BB industry events, local and international news, and industry expert
interview. Importantly, the newsletter highlights the progress of an important SBP's initiative to
engage World Bank for drafting a first-ever National Financial Inclusion Strategy for Pakistan.

EU launches anti-trust raids in biofuel probe

EU anti-trust regulators have carried out surprise raids on biofuel companies they suspect of
colluding over price, the European Commission said on Thursday. The operation was part of a
wider probe of several major oil companies over possible price fixing, which if confirmed would
breach of EU competition rules.
In line with usual practice, the Commission did not release the names of the companies
concerned. "The European Commission can confirm that on October 7, officials carried out
unannounced inspections at the premises of companies active in the production, distribution and
trading of ethanol, a biofuel," it said in a statement.
The raids took place in two European countries on companies suspected of rigging price
benchmarks through false submissions to a price regulation authority that governs the biofuel
market. "Even small distortions may have a significant impact on prices, potentially harming
consumers," the statement said.
Commission officials involved in the raids were accompanied by their counterparts from the
relevant national competition authorities, it added. An earlier investigation, launched in May
2013, had included raids on energy giants BP, Shell and Norway''s Statoil. Biofuels, based on
plant or food crops, are a key part of EU strategy to boost environment friendly energy resources,
especially for transport.

Sensitive Price Indicator inflation up 7.22 percent YoY

In Pakistan the weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) inflation surged by 7.22 percent during the week
ended October 9, 2014, reflecting an increase in prices of some essential commodities. The
provisional data, released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, shows that the SPI for the week under
review was recorded at 218.98 points against 204.24 over the same period of last year.
However, SPI inflation increased by 0.90 percent this week as compared to the previous week,
going up from 217.02 points to 218.98 points. The weekly SPI has been computed with base
2007-2008=100, covering 17 urban centers and 53 essential items for all income groups. The SPI
for the lowest income group up to Rs 8,000 registered an increase of 5.73 percent during the
week under review as compared to the same period last year.
During the week, average prices of 16 items registered an increase, while that of 9 registered a
decrease. The prices of 28 essential items remained same during the week under review. The 16
essential items which registered increase in prices during the week under review were tomatoes,
chicken live, match box, LPG cylinder 11kg, bananas, potatoes, red chilli powder loose, pulse
masoor washed, eggs, cooked beef, cooked daal, wheat flour bag, long cloth, curd, vegetable
ghee loose and kerosene oil.
The 9 items which registered decrease in prices during the week under review included onions,
pulse moong washed, gur, pulse gram washed, garlic, cooking oil tin, pulse mash washed, sugar
and rice basmati broken. The 28 essential items prices of which remained unchanged during the
week under review were wheat, rice irri-6 (Punjab/Sindh), bread plain-medium size, beef,
mutton, milk fresh, powdered milk Nido, mustard oil, vegetable ghee tin, salt powder loose
Lahori, tea Lipton Yellow Label, tea prepared, cigarettes k-2, shirting, lawn printed, georgette,
gents sandal Bata, gents chappal sponge Bata, ladies sandal Bata, electricity charges, gas
charges, firewood, energy saver 14w, washing soap 200-250g, petrol, diesel (HSD), telephone
local call charges and soap Lifebuoy

Finance Working Group meeting: reaffirm continued cooperation

The United States and Pakistan have reaffirmed their commitment to economic co-operation, as
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar discussed wide-ranging strategic relations with Deputy Secretary
William J Burns and Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the
Environment Catherine Novelli.
Finance Minister Dar and Under Secretary Novelli convened the Economic and Finance
Working Group of the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue to discuss Pakistan''''s economic reform
efforts, look at ways to increase bilateral trade and investment, and identify specific steps where
innovation and technology could improve co-operation and Pakistan''''s competitiveness in the
global economy.
The two delegations discussed Pakistan''''s ongoing efforts to bolster macroeconomic stability
and growth. "Over the past year, Pakistan has reduced energy subsidies and taken steps to control
its fiscal deficit. Major structural reforms, including in the energy sector, remain necessary to
help create strong growth and generate jobs," the State Department noted after the meeting.
Pakistan highlighted its intention to continue working closely with the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) to maintain progress on the reform agenda. "The two countries agreed to continue
their co-operation in these areas." Minister Dar discussed Pakistan''''s energy reforms, which
would encourage increased U.S. investment in renewable energy. Specifically, Under Secretary
Novelli highlighted US Agency for International Development (USAID) and Overseas Private
Investment Corporation (OPIC) support for the expansion of clean and renewable energy in
Pakistan, and recent progress on several wind farms that will be financed by OPIC.
Both sides agreed to convene the next Energy Working Group in Pakistan in early 2015 in order
to align our policy, assistance, and private sector engagement to support Pakistan''''s energy
reform efforts and power generation capacity. "The United States noted Pakistan''''s progress
toward its first liquefied natural gas imports, groundbreaking on Dasu Dam, and continued
distribution company reforms."
Earlier, at an event organised by USAID and the US-Pakistan Business Council, Minister Dar
and Minister for Water and Power Khawaja Muhammad Asif highlighted potential business
opportunities with the Diamer Bhasha hydroelectric dam to an audience of US companies and
investors.
The meeting complements other US-Pakistan energy co-operation efforts that will have added
1400 megawatts to Pakistan''''s grid by the end of this year, benefiting nearly 16 million
Pakistanis. Both sides noted progress on implementing Prime Minster Nawaz Sharif and
President Obama''''s pledge to expand bilateral trade and investment over the next five years.
Pakistan will host the next US-Pakistan Business Opportunities Conference in Islamabad in early
2015, and both countries will look at ways to increase opportunities for women entrepreneurs.

Pakistan has undergone a remarkable economic recovery

Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs Ishaq Dar Friday said Pakistan has undergone a
remarkable economic recovery over a short period of time, which is widely acknowledged by
independent analysts, particularly international financial institutions. "Even though the
government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif inherited a broken economy, it was not deterred by
challenges.
Within a few days of presenting the first budget in June 2013, the government introduced deeprooted
economic reforms, such as tax measures and adjustment in administered prices, without
which meaningful hope for economic revival was not possible," Dar told a big gathering of
students and faculty members of John Hopkins University (USA) on the topic "Pakistan's
Economic Recovery and Its Emerging Role in the Region." Dar who is currently visiting
Washington to attend the IMF and the World Bank meetings, said based on this reform agenda
"we were able to secure a three-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme from the IMF in
September 2013 for nearly $6.4 billion."
The programme, he said entails a rigorous discipline to economic management and so far "we
have completed three reviews under the programme and the 4th Review is under consideration".
Sharing some of the key achievements Pakistan has made in a short period of first fiscal year, he
said economic growth, which had averaged around 3 percent in previous five years, rose to 4.14
percent in FY 2013-14 as compared to 3.7 percent in FY 2012-13.
"This is the highest growth in the last five years," he added. Dar said per capita income, which
stood at $1,340 in FY 2012-13, has increased to $1,386 in FY 2013-14, showing a growth of 3.5
percent. He further said that industrial sector, which grew by a meagre 1.4 percent during FY
2012-13, has registered a growth of 5.8 percent in FY 2013-14, aided by increased availability of
electricity and better management of available gas supplies. "This is also the highest in the last
six years," he said.
The minister told the participants that inflation, which had averaged around 12 percent in the five
years, was recorded at 8.6 percent during FY 2013-14, that too despite the fact that "we had
taken difficult decisions to raise taxes and rationalise energy prices." He said the FBR revenues,
which had registered a mere 3 percent growth in FY 2012-13, are up by 16.4 percent, rising from
Rs 1,946 billion to Rs 2,266 billion during FY 2013-14 adding that fiscal deficit, which was
registered at 8.2 percent of GDP during FY 2012-13, has been brought down to 5.7 percent in FY
2013-14.
"This is the single largest fiscal adjustment in one year. Here, I would like to remind that in the
revised estimates for FY 2012-13, we were told that the fiscal deficit will be 8.8 percent. We had
taken office only a few days earlier but even then in the three weeks of June 2013, concerted
efforts were made to economise on spending. The result was that actual deficit was brought
down to 8.2 percent."
Development spending, he said was recorded at Rs 441 billion in FY 2013-14 against the revised
target of Rs 425 billion. "Thus, unlike in the past when adjustment was achieved by cutting
development spending, our government has made full development spending, which rose by 36
percent from actual spending of Rs 324 billion during FY 2012-13." Ishaq Dar said the credit to
private sector, which was registered at Rs 19 billion during FY 2012-13,increased to Rs 379
billion for FY 2013-14,a growth of 19 times and reflecting increased investment activity in the
private sector.
Government borrowings from State Bank of Pakistan, he said, which were at a level of Rs 1,446
billion during FY 2012-13, were reduced to Rs 303 billion, merely 21 percent of last year's level.
Dar said exports were recorded at $25.13 billion during FY 2013-14 compared to $24.46 billion
during FY 2012-13, registering an increase of 2.73 percent. Imports, he said were recorded at
$45.11 billion during FY 2013-14 compared to $44.95 billion during FY 2012-13, showing a
negligible increase of 0.35 percent. He added that Remittances, which were recorded at $13.93
billion during FY 2012-13, rose to $15.83 billion during FY 2013-14, showing an increase of
13.7 percent, for which "I salute my expatriate Pakistanis for playing such a critical role in the
country's economy."
Exchange rate, he said has depicted a remarkable stability and appreciated during the tenure of
our government. Dar said in the beginning, as the country entered into IMF programme,
speculators caused significant volatility through speculative behaviour, also aided by initial
decline in reserves in the face of heavy repayments due from the previous IMF loan.
"The government has handled the crisis deftly as, on the one hand, while we checked that
speculative behaviour and, on the other, mobilised additional resources to shore up reserves," he
added. "During this calendar year alone, the rupee has appreciated by 7 percent, after having
pushed up to Rs 110 a US dollar in November 2013. It had traded in the range of Rs 98-99 for
nearly three months, and this is the single most important indicator of economic stability," he
added. He said official foreign exchange reserves, which had declined to a precarious level when
in June 2013 they stood at $6 billion, of which $2 billion were due to a swap that was payable in
August.
"More importantly, besides regular debt servicing, a payment of $3.2 billion was due to IMF,
bulk of which was in the first half of FY 2013-14. In February 2014, reserves of the State Bank
had fallen to $2.82 billion. Many had predicted that Pakistan would soon default. It is from such
a precipice that we have pulled the economy back and put it in on a sound footing. It is due to
our prudent economic management and the confidence of our international partners in our
policies that foreign exchange reserves of the country have entered safe territory and no longer
pose any risk to the economy.
As on 1st October, 2014, the reserves stood at $13.92 billion comprising $8.882 billion of the
State Bank," he said. Karachi Stock Exchange 100-index he said, which stood at 19,916 on 11th
May, 2013, the day the elections were held, has continuously scaled new heights and stood at
29,997 on 1st October, 2014 showing an increase of over 50 percent.
"On the other hand, market capitalisation increased from Rs 5.04 trillion to Rs 7.22 trillion for
the same period, showing an increase of 43 percent; and incorporation of new companies, which
was recorded at 3,953 during FY 2012-13 has increased to 4,587 during FY 2013-14, showing an
increase of 16 percent," he added.
Dar told the participants that in addition to the above, "we have achieved following certain
results that have eluded the previous government for its five-year term":
-- Raising of $2 billion through Eurobond after 7 years;
-- Successful auction of 3G-4G licenses. Nearly $1.2 billion were raised and some more licenses
are still available for sale;
-- Resumption of programme lending by the World Bank and the ADB, that has enabled us to
access some $1.5 billion from these institutions during the year;
-- Successful revival and resumption of the privatisation programme, whereby we have already
divested the shares of United Bank Limited (about $400 million) and PPL (subscription Rs 30
billion, which is highest-ever in our stock market history; and realisation of Rs 15.3 billion); and
-- Construction of terminal at Port Qasim to import LNG, which will likely receive 200 mmcfd
of LNG within one year.
He said two other initiatives of our government are also worth mentioning that "We have listed
public securities for trading in the stock exchange to enable individuals who cannot buy them in
the open auction, to invest in such securities; and
Pro-poor expenditures, through the National Income Support Programme, have witnessed a
phenomenal increase from Rs 40 billion in FY 2012-13 to Rs 118 billion in FY 2014-15 (a
nearly 3-fold increase).
Under the programme, the individual stipend has been raised from Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,500 and we
increased the number of beneficiary families from 4.1 million during FY 2012-13 to 5.3 million
in FY 2014-15." Dar informed them that international think tanks and research groups have
recognised Pakistan's impressive economic turnaround in the first year of government.
He added that the JETRO declared Pakistan as likely to be the 2nd choicest place for FDI;
Goldman Sachs forecast that Pakistan which is currently at 44th position, would be world's 18th
largest economy by 2050; OICCI raised Pakistan's index from -34 to +2; Moody's raised our
economic outlook from negative to positive; and in Nielsen's Global Survey of Consumer
Confidence, Pakistan's index rose to 99 in the 1st quarter of 2014 from the lowest level of 86 in
the 3rd quarter of 2011.
While giving an overview of PML-N government's vision for 2017-18, Dar said GDP would
grow gradually to around 7 percent, inflation would remain in single digits, ie, no more than 8
percent, fiscal deficit to be brought down to 4 percent, foreign exchange reserves to be built over
$20 billion, investment-GDP ratio would be increased to 20 percent, industrial sector would
grow by 8 percent, public debt would be brought down to less than 55 percent of GDP, tax-GDP
ratio would be increased to 15 percent and exports would be increased to $32 billion.
He added that current account deficit would be brought down to -2 percent of GDP, Foreign
Direct Investment would be increased to $5.5 billion, spending around 4 percent of GDP on
education and health, poverty alleviation and support to vulnerable sections of the society, power
cuts would be reduced; and shortage of natural gas would be met with enhanced supplies through
increased exploration/production, imports both overland and sea.
Dar said the performance was a result of implementation of a broad-based reform agenda aimed
at restructuring of power sector, public sector enterprises, corporate governance, banking and
financial sector and improvement in investment climate. "It is to be noted that the resources
under the Fund programme have been significantly less than the repayments that were due from
the previous abortive programme," he added.
Briefly sharing that in recent days Pakistan's economic programme has faced certain pressures in
the backdrop of disruption due to politics of long march and sit-ins resorted to by two parties,
one of which has about 10 percent presence in the National Assembly and the other, headed by a
Canada-based cleric, has no representation in the Parliament.
He added that the exchange rate has depreciated by 4 percent and stock market was affected, but
soon recovered. The situation, he said has negatively impacted the evolving feel-good factor that
was ensued by our economic recovery. "We are, however, hopeful that we will overcome these
difficulties and our journey towards economic prosperity will remain on course," he added.
Highlighting Pakistan and its importance in region, he said that with 180-million strong people,
majority being in the age group of less than 25 years, strategic location in the South-East Asia,
vastly endowed with fertile lands and natural resources, Pakistan is the only Muslim nation with
a nuclear capability.
About India, he said that economic recovery and prosperity of Pakistan will play an important
role in the region. "We are keen to settle our disputes with India so that the two countries can
focus on building economic relations. Undoubtedly, a large number of economic opportunities
will benefit both Pakistan and India but we need to resolve our bilateral issues so that economic
relations are not compromised and detracted by those disputes."
About China, he said that China and Pakistan are bound in historical relations since the founding
of the two countries. Regarding Afghanistan, he said "We have supported the process of
elections in Afghanistan and welcomed the resolution of election dispute between the
presidential candidates and eventual transition of power to new democratic government".
About Iran, he said that Iran is a very important neighbour with whom we not only share a very
long border but also, like Afghanistan, strong cultural and religious ties. "We are pleased with
the recent easing of sanctions on Iran and look forward to further improvements in this
direction."