Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Major stock markets outside the United States showing Mix Trend

EUROPE STOCKS EXCHANGE: European stocks closed higher, with banks gaining after results at Goldman Sachs beat expectations, and as investors braced for a rate cut in the United States. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed up 0.9 percent at 834.84 points. The index has lost more than 44 percent this year, hurt by a credit crisis that has helped push several major economies into recession.

Goldman Sachs posted its first quarterly loss since going public nine years ago, but some investors had expected even deeper losses and its shares rose 8.6 percent on Wall Street.

FRANKFURT STOCKS EXCHANGE: The DAX index ended at 4729.91 points, up 75.09 or 1.61 percent.

PARIS STOCKS EXCHANGE: The CAC-40 index closed at 3251.66 points, up 66 or 2.07 percent.

ZURICH STOCKS EXCHANGE: The Swiss market index closed at 5567.14 points, up 40.6 or 0.73 percent.

MILAN STOCKS EXCHANGE: The All Share Mibtel index closed at 15064 points, up 152 or 1.02 percent.

SYDNEY STOCKS EXCHANGE: Stocks fell 0.98 percent, dragged down by top phone company Telstra Corp, while Macarthur Coal tumbled on a profit downgrade. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 35.2 points to 3,556.2, after rising 2.3 percent on Monday.

JOHANNESBURG STOCKS EXCHANGE: South Africa's markets were closed today for the Reconciliation Day public holiday. They will reopen tomorrow. On Monday, the All-share index closed at 21805.83 points. The All Gold index closed at 2366.99 points, while the Industrial index closed at 16584.83 points.

Wall Street drops on financial worry

US stocks stumbled on Monday, roiled by worries about how big a bite the global financial crisis has taken from banks' profits and fallout from a massive investment fraud scheme. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co was the biggest drag on the Dow after Merrill Lynch cut the stock to an "underperform" rating and forecast a loss for the bank's fourth quarter.

Another blow to sentiment was concern about the financial sector's exposure to potential losses related to investment manager Bernard Madoff, who is accused by US authorities of masterminding a $50 billion fraud. "There will be some investors as a result of this who say, 'I'm going to put all my money in cash,'" said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average shed 65.15 points, or 0.75 percent, to end at 8,564.53. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 11.16 points, or 1.27 percent, to 868.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 32.38 points, or 2.10 percent, to 1,508.34.

The Dow is down 35 percent year to date and nearly 40 percent from its record closing high on October 9, 2007. The downgrade of J.P. Morgan comes before earnings this week from two other big financial names, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Analysts expect Goldman Sachs to report its first quarterly loss since going public in 1999. The S&P financial index fell 4 percent, with J.P. Morgan's stock down 7.5 percent at $28.63.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc shed 1.9 percent to $66.46 while Morgan Stanley slid 1.5 percent to $13.64. Technology shares also pulled the market lower after Goldman Sachs cut its rating on Apple to "neutral" and removed the iPod maker from its conviction buy list, citing falling consumer demand for its products. Apple's stock slid 3.6 percent to $94.75 on Nasdaq.

Economic data gave investors more reasons for caution. A gauge of manufacturing in New York State hit a record low in December, while homebuilder sentiment remained at record lows for the month. Investors looked ahead to an interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. The US central bank is expected to cut its benchmark fed funds rate to 0.5 percent from 1 percent in hopes of boosting the weak US economy.

The Dow Jones US Home Construction Index fell 5.5 percent a day before the US Commerce Department is expected to report another monthly drop in housing starts. An index of energy stocks slipped 0.3 percent after crude oil fell below $45 a barrel on concerns about global energy demand as major world economies struggle with recession.

When Opec ministers meet on Wednesday, they may make their deepest oil supply cut ever. Bucking the session's downtrend were shares of General Motors and Ford, which rose on hopes that a financial lifeline could still materialise. The timing and size of any US government aid package, however, were still in question.

GM's stock rose 3.6 percent to $4.08 and Ford added 4.6 percent to $3.18. Volume was modest on the New York Stock Exchange, where about 1.21 billion shares changed hands, below last year's estimated daily average of 1.90 billion. On the Nasdaq, about 1.68 billion shares traded, below last year's daily average of 2.17 billion. Decliners outnumbered advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq by a ratio of about 3 to 1.

KSE-100 index lost another 372.51 points

Heavy selling pressure continued at the Karachi share market on the second day after the removal of the price floor and the benchmark KSE-100 index lost another 372.51 points to close at 8,444.59 points level on Tuesday. Over 100 million shares of blue chip stocks remained available for sale at KATS, which, could not traded due to the absence of buyers.

The market started in the negative and the index was down by 307.03 points at the end of the session. After readjustment as per the Karachi Stock Exchange rule, the index was declared down by 372.51 points. Trading volume at the ready market increased to 25.360 million shares as compared to 17.863 million shares traded a day earlier. The future market witnessed an activity of 3,500 shares after many days.

The overall market capitalisation declined by Rs 109 billion to close at Rs 2.593 trillion. Trading took place in 150 scrips, out of which 130 scrips closed in the negative and 17 in the positive while the value of three scrips remained unchanged.

Zeal Pak was the overall volume leader of the day with 9.639 million shares and gained Re 0.11 to close at Re 0.50. KESC closed at Rs 1.81, up by Re 0.01 with 3.208 million shares. Dewan Salman lost Re 0.80 to close at Rs 1.14 with 2.157 million shares.

PIA declined by Re 0.95 to close at Rs 2.25 with 1.344 million shares. Telecard lost Re 0.76 to close at Rs 1.94 with 1.106 million shares. Pak PTA Limited decreased by Re 0.28 to close at Rs 1.90 with 1.046 million shares. IGI Investment Bank lost Re 0.92 to close at Rs 2.08 with 1.027 million shares. Nimir Ind Chemical gained Re 0.03 to close at Rs 1.18 with 0.999 million shares. Flying Cement lost Re 0.99 to close at Rs 2.33 with 0.949 million shares. Unity Modaraba closed at Re 0.25, up by Re 0.01 with 0.568 million shares.

Jubilee Spinning and Zephyr Textile were the highest gainers and gained Re 1.00 and Re 0.84 to close at Rs 3.00 and Rs 2.39 respectively while Unilever Pak and Pak Engineering were the worst losers and lost Rs 111.15 and Rs 16.13 to close at Rs 2111.85 and Rs 306.56 respectively.

Ahsan Mehanti at Shehzad Chamdia Securities said that uncertainty prevailed as the rupee lost strength against the dollar on foreign outflow from capital markets and rising economic disorder. Investors remained concerned over Sindh High Court decision with respect to CFS outstanding contracts and fate of CFS Financiers/Financee. Falling Index levels and rising mark to market losses remained a concern for stock brokerage houses.
Depressed sentiment continued for the second day on the Lahore Stock Exchange on Tuesday and the equities suffered losses amid ascending transaction volume on account of selling pressure. The LSE-25 index further declined by 143.71 points to close at 2475.02 against 2618.73 of Monday while trading turnover substantially increased to 1.228 million shares as compared to 0.761 million shares traded a day earlier.

While continuing overnight sentiment, the market opened on a negative note and remained under pressure throughout the day. During first hour of trading, all the major shares opened at their lower cap because of 5 percent circuit breaker and stayed in minus column. The market was totally lacking institutional support and kept on going down till the closing. The market lost about 10 percent just in two days and expected to further slide down by five percent on Wednesday as the stay against the CFS in the Sindh High Court has been extended for another day, said Aamir Hussain of Invest and Cap while commenting on the market trend. He was of the view the situation would be clear after the court verdict in the case.

Out of a total of 88 active issues, two companies improved their values, 15 stayed in negative zone, while 71 stayed glued to their previous levels. Among gainers, Southern Electric Power and Zeal Pak Cement improved their value by 8 and 5 paisa respectively. However, Sitara Energy lost Rs 1.98, Hub Power declined by Rs 1.02, Atlas Bank, Dewan Farooq Motors, Fauji Cement, NIB Bank, and Orix Investment Bank fell by Re 1 each. Zeal Pak Cement with trading of 610,000 shares topped the volume leaders followed by Dewan Salman Fibre with 261,000 shares.

Fresh bearish assault moved the entire ready-board in downward direction at the Islamabad Stock Exchange (ISE) where equities continued to show negative signs under the lead of hot favourite amid negative trend. ISE Ten Index was down by 88.20 points, as the index moved from 1,900.41 to 1,812.21 points.

The overall turnover stood at 82,319 shares as compared to previous volume of 419 shares. Total 65 companies participated in buying and selling activity. Majority of stocks (59) closed in negative territory, five closed in positive territory, whereas one company remained pegged to previous level. The volume of First UDL Modaraba was 20,000 shares. The turnover of Pakistan PTA was 20,000 shares. The turnover of PIA was 12,000 shares.

Massive bankruptcies expected in early 2009

Massive bankruptcies expected in early 2009
The business community is expecting massive bankruptcies in early 2009, due to latest Pak-India tension in the backdrop of November 27 Mumbai attacks coupled with prevailing power and gas load shedding countrywide.

Right from retail to the wholesale markets and the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to the large-scale units, everyone from the business community is very much concerned over the prevailing negative trend in the business.

Interestingly, the government should focus on releasing development funds, instead of stimulating development activities, moreover the government should avoid working much fashioned 'stimulus plan' like rest of the world, businessmen said.

The large scale units are facing acute power and gas shortage, putting their machines off and the export-oriented industries, particularly the SMEs, are losing hope on any worthwhile 'relief package' in the days ahead.

"A delay in payments is very much likely against export shipments from apparel sector and majority of the apparel sector would be unable to meet recovery schedules of banks," said one leading exporter from hosiery sector. Another from Ready made Garments sector pointed out massive bankruptcies ahead with rising number of defaults.

"Heavy closures are in the offing across the board due to unfavorable state of affairs in the field business," said another exporter. Similarly, hopes regarding continuity of Research & Development (R&D) fund are also dying fast despite the fact that the IMF has agreed with the government for its continuity for value-added sector.

Those in retail and wholesale business are blaming electronic media for spreading fears on possible attack from India. According to them the panic has spread all around the markets and no one is ready to make fresh deals unless uncertainty fizzles out.

It is also worth mentioning that a good number of B-3 consumers have already shut down their businesses across the country due to unprecedented power shortage, continuing from last November. Reliable sources in the industry as well as the power sector revealed that the electricity consumption of B-3 consumers has slashed more than half in the last year, which reflects heavy closure in spinning and weaving sectors.

And those having captive power plants have entered into last round of a lost battle with the government over gas supply to their power generation units. The textile sector is striving to convince the government policymakers that supply of uninterrupted gas to its units carries worth than the CNG stations.

Meanwhile, sources in the Planning & Development Board admitted that the progress on ongoing as well new development schemes is terribly low. A string of meetings is in the process at the P&D Board at present to pursue different departments on gearing up development pace in the province ahead of mid-year development review meetings, scheduled in January. A scarcity of funds, as a matter of fact, has put all development priorities of the government on backburner, which is supposed to support some 40 different industries linked directly and indirectly with construction.

A change in fund release policy is underway before the Chief Minister Punjab Mian Shahbaz Sharif avails the opportunity of suspending a few more development planners in upcoming mid-year development review meetings.

Rs 20 billion public entities shares to be offered to expatriates

Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance Shaukat Tarin said on Tuesday that the government would sell Rs 20 billion shares of public sector entities to non-resident Pakistanis, for which an agreement has been reached with International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Talking to newsmen after addressing a seminar on global financial crisis, jointly organised by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and IMF in the Planning Commission Auditorium, he said that this option (provision of Rs 20 billion) was still intact, and the government would intervene at the right moment, with the right price, and added that "what we commit, we execute". He, however, clarified that he had never made any promise to establish any market support fund for stock market brokers.

Talking about the depreciation of the rupee after removal of floor from the stock market, he expressed optimism that the rupee would appreciate, saying that it was the result of speculation in the market, which would end soon. He said that the government would be receiving more than $1.5 billion from different international financial institutions (IFIs) in February, "after which our trade deficit would come down".

When asked if he had any timeline to bring down the soaring inflation, he said that it was the government's top priority, and steps were being taken in the right direction. He said that the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) and Consumer Price Indicator (CPI) for November had shown declining trend compared with October. From January, a substantial declining trend in inflation would be visible, he added.

He expressed hope about further decline in oil and commodity prices in the international market, and added that this would definitely help the government in arresting inflation. He said that the government would pay special attention to value-added textile products, "because this sector is in trouble".

The Advisor said that the government was expecting surplus agriculture produce because of its farmer-friendly policies. Regarding any new tax policy for improving the tax-to-GDP ratio, he said that the government was not introducing any new policy in this respect. He said that the government would discover and address administrative gaps in this respect. Tarin said that the government would soon promulgate 'Money Laundering Act' in the country.

option of market support fund still intact: Tarin Said

KSE down despite fund talk; rupee firms

Shares in Karachi stock market fell in early trade on Wednesday and dealers said investors and institutions were reluctant to step in despite the reported announcement of a possible support fund for the market. Shaukat Tarin, the country's top economic adviser, said a support found was being set up and shares worth 20 billion rupees ($247 million) would be sold to overseas Pakistanis, the local daily reported.

Tarin, who was not available for comment, said the "modalities" of the fund would be released in two or three days, newspaper said.

The Karachi Stock Exchange benchmark 100-share index shed 0.56 percent, or 47.02 points, to 8,397.87, its lowest in more than three years, on turnover of 5.9 million shares by 10:30 a.m. (0530 GMT).

"Talk of this fund has been coming for many days but it has never materialised," said Atif Malik, head of international sales at JS Global Capital Ltd.

Authorities removed a floor on the main index on Monday. It was imposed in late August after sharp falls and led to the withering of trade.

Dealers had hoped the floor would be removed in October but authorities said they wanted to first set up a 20 billion rupees government support fund.

However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which last month approved a $7.6 billion loan for Pakistan to avert a balance of payment crisis, had opposed the use of public funds to support the share market, a senior exchange official said.

According to newspaper the IMF had now given the go-ahead for the fund.

Legal cases were also dampening trade.

The KSE management, including the Securities and Exchange Commission and the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Ltd, are facing cases filed by brokers seeking settlement of amounts borrowed through a continuous funding system, a funding mechanism for some stocks listed on the KSE.

One hearing is scheduled to resume on Wednesday.

In the currency market, the rupee was trading firmer at 80.40/60 to the dollar, compared with Tuesday's close of 81.25/35 and dealers said there were rumours of possible State Bank of Pakistan intervention.

The rupee slipped 1.6 percent on Wednesday as negative sentiment prevailed on fear of portfolio outflows following the removal on Monday of the stock index floor.